Technology stock

What’s next for Marvell Technology Stock after rallying 8% last week?

Shares of Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) gained 8% last week and is currently trading at around $65 per share. Additionally, Marvell, a semiconductor technology company, has seen its stock gain nearly 8% in the past month from around $60. The company’s recent Q2 2022 (Marvell’s fiscal year ends January) results released in late August saw revenue drop from $727 million in Q2 21 to $1.08 billion in Q2 22. However, a jump across all expense lines saw operating loss drop from $151m to $267m, with EPS falling from -$0.24 in Q2 2021 to -$0.34 in Q2. 22.

Now, after the recent rally, will Marvell stock continue its upward trajectory over the next few weeks, or is a stock correction more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, Marvell stock returns average 3.3% (implying a stock price increase from $65 to $67) over the next month (twenty-one trading days) after seeing an 8% rise from the previous week (five trading days) .

But how would those numbers change if you wanted to hold Marvell Technology stock for a shorter or longer period? You can test the response and many other combinations on the Trefis machine learning engine to test Marvell Technology Stock Price Forecast after a rise or fall. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month or even a single day. For details on Marvell Technology’s historical returns and comparison of returns with peers, see Marvell Technology Stock Performance.

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

If Marvell Technology stock has moved -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, Marvell Technology stock has moved an average of 2.5%, with an average probability of 57.3% of a positive return over this period.

Moreover, given a -5% movement for the stock over five trading days, it has historically experienced a excess return 1.7% against the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with an average probability of 54% of a positive excess return.

Some fun scenarios, FAQs, and making sense of Marvell stock movements:

Question 1: Are Marvell stock price forecasts higher after a decline?

To respond: Consider two situations,

Case 1: Marvell stock drops 5% or more in one week

Case 2: Marvell stock rises 5% or more in one week

Is the average Marvell stock return higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?

Marvell stock fares better after case 1with an expected return of 4.7% over the next month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% compared to the previous week), compared to an expected return of 2 .3% for case 2. implies a price forecast of $68.18 in case 1 and a figure of $66.67 in case 2 using the Marvell market price of $65.15 on 10/08 /2021.

By comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the expected return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Marvell stock is likely to perform after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.

Question 2: Does patience pay off?

To respond: If you buy and hold Marvell stock, it is expected that over time, the short-term fluctuations will cancel each other out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong. .

All in all, according to data and calculations from the Trefis machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays off for most actions!

For Marvell stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this chart looks like for Marvell after a bigger loss in the last week, month or quarter.

Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait a bit?

To respond: The expected return after a rise is naturally lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has been gaining in the last few days, you’re better off avoiding short-term bets for most stocks.

It is powerful enough to test the Marvell Technology stock trend for yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.

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