Shares of Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MRVL) gained 8% last week and is currently trading at around $65 per share. Additionally, Marvell, a semiconductor technology company, has seen its stock gain nearly 8% in the past month from around $60. The company’s recent Q2 2022 (Marvell’s fiscal year ends January) results released in late August saw revenue drop from $727 million in Q2 21 to $1.08 billion in Q2 22. However, a jump across all expense lines saw operating loss drop from $151m to $267m, with EPS falling from -$0.24 in Q2 2021 to -$0.34 in Q2. 22.
Now, after the recent rally, will Marvell stock continue its upward trajectory over the next few weeks, or is a stock correction more likely? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in the company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, Marvell stock returns average 3.3% (implying a stock price increase from $65 to $67) over the next month (twenty-one trading days) after seeing an 8% rise from the previous week (five trading days) .
But how would those numbers change if you wanted to hold Marvell Technology stock for a shorter or longer period? You can test the response and many other combinations on the Trefis machine learning engine to test Marvell Technology Stock Price Forecast after a rise or fall. You can test the chances of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, a month or even a single day. For details on Marvell Technology’s historical returns and comparison of returns with peers, see Marvell Technology Stock Performance.
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
If Marvell Technology stock has moved -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, Marvell Technology stock has moved an average of 2.5%, with an average probability of 57.3% of a positive return over this period.
Moreover, given a -5% movement for the stock over five trading days, it has historically experienced a excess return 1.7% against the S&P500 over the next 21 trading days, with an average probability of 54% of a positive excess return.
Some fun scenarios, FAQs, and making sense of Marvell stock movements:
Question 1: Are Marvell stock price forecasts higher after a decline?
To respond: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Marvell stock drops 5% or more in one week
Case 2: Marvell stock rises 5% or more in one week
Is the average Marvell stock return higher in the next month after Case 1 or Case 2?
Marvell stock fares better after case 1with an expected return of 4.7% over the next month (21 trading days) in case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a loss of 5% compared to the previous week), compared to an expected return of 2 .3% for case 2. implies a price forecast of $68.18 in case 1 and a figure of $66.67 in case 2 using the Marvell market price of $65.15 on 10/08 /2021.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has an expected return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days in Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2, as detailed in our dashboard. which details the expected return of the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Marvell stock is likely to perform after a specific gain or loss over a period of time.
Question 2: Does patience pay off?
To respond: If you buy and hold Marvell stock, it is expected that over time, the short-term fluctuations will cancel each other out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong. .
All in all, according to data and calculations from the Trefis machine learning engine, patience absolutely pays off for most actions!
For Marvell stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days are detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this chart looks like for Marvell after a bigger loss in the last week, month or quarter.
Question 3: What about the stock price forecast after a rise if you wait a bit?
To respond: The expected return after a rise is naturally lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has been gaining in the last few days, you’re better off avoiding short-term bets for most stocks.
It is powerful enough to test the Marvell Technology stock trend for yourself by changing the entries in the charts above.
Invest with Trefis Portfolios that outperform the market
See everything Trefis Price estimates